Call option volume in the Invesco DB U.S. Dollar Index Bearish Fund (UDN) surged roughly 1,144%, as traders weigh the Treasury's expanded bond buybacks against the Fed's Jackson Hole policy stance.
For nearly eight decades the U.S. dollar has worn the crown of global commerce - pricing oil, anchoring central-bank reserves, and underwriting America’s unrivaled borrowing binge.
A dramatic confrontation between the White House and the Federal Reserve has been put off – for now. Come Tuesday, Trump said he has “no intention” of firing Powell before his term ends.
European and international stocks are outperforming as the US trade initiatives seek to rebalance international trade, which will of course be reflected in lesser need for USD (capital account reflection).
Two warnings as loud as ever that US also feels (short-term?) pain from the tariff war - yields rise, USD falls, gold is rocketing up, BTC decoupling from Nasdaq.
If a genuine unwinding gets underway, there is a long way to go on the downside. But it is too soon to declare that. Yes, volatility bulls were unable to cling on to the weekly highs, but there are several layers of defendable support underneath.
if stocks wanted to tank, they would do so on stagflationary, record bad UoM consumer data or continued tariff news barrage – and that isn't happening,
For the second week in a row, the Nasdaq 100 traded in a sideways pattern. Last week, it fell 2.5% but recovered from a 5.2% decline at one time. This week, the tech-heavy index inched up 0.25 percent to 19754. That gain follows four weekly drops.
Gold stocks bottomed in 2000, turned up in 2001, and began to lead gold (rising HUI/Gold ratio) that year as well. HUI eventually tacked on well over a 300% gain while most stock markets were bearish.
Non-commercials just switched to net long e-mini S&P 500 futures after remaining net short for 14 weeks in a row. They are likely to do well on this switch – at least near term.
